Written by Stephen Moloney (www.twitter.com/TheCheeky9)

Chances are if, at any point over the last few weeks, the Middle East crossed your mind, I’d be willing to wager that it probably wasn’t because you were eagerly anticipating the arrival of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and therefore the beginning of the European tour’s annual ‘Desert Swing’ – or, at least, I know that was the case for me at any rate. But, as has always been the case, despite the tragic news stories the world keeps turning and, as selfish as it may seem if you think about it for too long, we just have to try and carry on as normally as possible – even if “normal” appears to be getting more and more abnormal with each passing week.

And, after Branden Grace’s stunning final round 62 to pip Louis Oosthuizen to the South African Open trophy Sunday afternoon in Johannesburg, what spells normal for January is the European Tour rolling into the resplendent surrounds of Abu Dhabi for the first Rolex Series event of the year in this week’s HSBC Championship. Now, usually, the vast amounts of money and Race to Dubai points on offer at the first of the ‘Desert Swing’ events – and the first of the big events of the entire season, really – attracts a stellar field to the second most populous city in the United Arab Emirates and this year is certainly no different.

The rotating group of high-profile American players who make the annual migration east in search of an early season win – and, let’s be honest, a nice shot of appearance money – will of course be in the field; with Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka being the headline acts this year.

With Justin Rose scheduled to play in the Singapore Open this week, Jon Rahm teeing it up at the American Express and Rory McIlroy not making his first outing of 2020 until later in the month at the Farmers, last season’s runner-up in the Race to Dubai and two-time champion of this event, Tommy Fleetwood, will be the highest ranked European in the field when play commences on Thursday, followed closely by the defending champion, Shane Lowry, who enters this week fresh off a runner-up finish at the Hong Kong Open and, no doubt, with an eye on catapulting himself into the Ryder Cup mix early with a big performance at the very place where his ‘season to remember’ all began last year.

Speaking of runners-up with a point to prove, after his putter went through a never welcome case of ‘The Sunday Chills’, one gets the impression that it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Louis Oosthuizen lurking around the top of the leaderboard throughout the week, especially when he finished 4th only last year and is a one-time runner-up back in 2009; though with the usual cohort of other talented South Africans who are so often right in the mix towards the business-end of tournaments – including none other than the man who could have started putting with the grip end of his putter on Sunday in Johannesburg and the ball would still have gone in the hole, Branden Grace – joining him in the field, they might just have something to say about whose account the first big cheque of the year gets deposited into.

And, look, I could continue to rattle off some of the big names who’ll be playing this week that are worth keeping an eye out for, you know, the likes of Matthew Fitzpatrick, Danny Willett, Sergio Garcia, Bernd Wiesberger, Viktor Hovland etc. etc … but, in reality, it would be far easier to just post the link to the entire ‘Entry List’ because, ultimately, the field this week is incredibly deep and suitably fitting for a tournament of this magnitude.

Given things didn’t go all that badly with my predictions/mentions for the South African Open, however – though Charl Schwartzel missed the cut, Louis finished 2nd, Connor Syme finished T-22 & Harry Hall finished 12th – I have once again made that arduous trek into the wilderness to consult with my Oracles, drunk long and deep from their goblet of truth and, after navigating my way through the resultant fever dreams drinking from said goblet induces, I have returned with the names of those select few golfers who might be worth keeping an eye on this week and divided them between “Contenders” –  those who I think might possibly win or finish high up the leaderboard – and “Wildcards” – those in the field flying somewhat under the radar who might be good for a surprise performance.

The Contenders

First and foremost, if we’re looking to see who might contend this week, I think you have to take into consideration the weather conditions that the Persian Gulf has seen recently. Last week a deluge of rain saw extensive flooding in the region that resulted in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai more resembling Ireland during any given winter as opposed to the sun-drenched playgrounds we usually see on Instagram from that one Irish person we all know living over there. 

Now, according to a report in “The National” (the Middle East’s leading English-language newspaper) the tournament’s Executive Director, Peter German, has said that the bad weather “has had no substantial effect” on the course at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club and that it “recovered extremely quickly from the heavy rainfall”. However, with more rain yesterday you’d have to think that – even with the Trojan work being done by the greenkeeping staff – the course for the first two days at least, might end up being a lot softer than usual and therefore play just that little bit longer.

And if that ends up being the case, I think one of the first guys you’d have to look at as being a potential contender is Tommy Fleetwood. Fresh off the back of not missing a single cut for the entirety of 2019, the aforementioned runner-up in last season’s ‘Race to Dubai’ and two-time champion of this event in 2017 and 2018 appears to have reached that level with his game where he can rock up at any given tournament and get into contention. And with his length off the tee (11th in the rankings last year), accuracy with his irons (4th in GIR last year) and apparent renewed zeal with his putter, Tommy could well be joining the exclusive club of people with a trio of wins in Abu Dhabi (well, I say ‘people’, but it’s actually just Martin Kaymer).

After much deliberation between Louis Oosthuizen and Brooks Koepka, I’ve decided to go with the former and, of course, one of my picks from last week. I just think the way Louis has been performing since the tailend of last year and now the beginning of this year is indicative of the kind of play which surely has to end with him getting his hands on some silverware. He drives it plenty long (not up there with the biggest hitters, of course, but he still gets it out there). He’s number one in GIR. He’s number one in sand saves. And he’s number one in stroke average (66.50). The only thing that’s letting him down is the putter, but if he can find a way to heat it up this week, Louis could be, once again, right in the thick of things come Sunday afternoon.

Again, like was the case with trying to choose between Louis and Brooks, my next contender, Viktor Hovland, took a bit of deliberation as I was caught between grouping him as a ‘Contender’ or a ‘Wildcard’, but, in the end, the Norwegian made it in with Fleetwood and Oosthuizen. Now, admittedly, this decision is somewhat a case of “heart over head” as part of me just thinks the Norwegian has that ‘superstar potential’ and I want him to kick on in 2020 and show it, but I genuinely do think Viktor has the game to make a big impact in Abu Dhabi. He’s tremendously long off the tee, great with the irons and, as his record-breaking string of 19 consecutive rounds in the 60’s showed, he’s more than useful with a putter in his hands – and on the pristine greens he’ll be facing this week, that could see him vault up the leaderboard in a heartbeat.

Back in 2016, whilst one of the best amateurs in the game who was on the verge of turning professional, Bryson DeChambeau landed a spot in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and proceeded to shoot an -8 (64) in the first round and take the overnight lead. Though his challenge ultimately faded over the next three days to where he eventually finished in a tie for 54th, what Bryson showed on that Thursday four years ago is that he can score around the Abu Dhabi track and, in the years since then, he’s gone on to prove himself as being one of the top golfers in the game. He’s cracked the top ten in the World Rankings (though he’s currently 16th); made both a Ryder Cup team and a President’s Cup team; and won an impressive six times on tour, including four in a single season back in 2018 and romping to last year’s ‘Dubai Desert Classic’ by a handsome seven shots. So, given his increase in length off the tee thanks to an off-season of hard conditioning (he’s gone from an average of 302.5 yards last season to 313.6 yards so far this season) I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bryson make the kind of gains that fill out his trophy cabinet rather than just the sleeves on his polo shirt.

The Wildcards

Did you know that Martin Kaymer led the European Tour in ‘Greens in Regulation’ in 2019? No? Well, he did. Why this probably isn’t more common knowledge, however, is likely due to the fact that, although he made the cut in 13 of the 17 events he played over here last year, he only registered three top tens. And if you look at his 2019 as a whole, including the PGA Tour events that he played, Martin’s best finish was a solo third at the Memorial – or, in other words, it was something of a lowkey season for the somewhat enigmatic, two-time Major winner. If there was ever a place to watch out for the German, however, it has to be in Abu Dhabi. In the thirteen years that he’s been in the field for this event, the German has only missed the cut twice; posted an over par total score once; has a total score of -144 from his 13 appearances; finished second, third and fourth; and, as I mentioned earlier, is currently the only player to have won it three times, doing so in a four year spell from 2008 to 2011 where he went 1st/T-2/1st/1st. Basically, however else he may be playing, when Martin Kaymer turns up in Abu Dhabi, he turns up.

And, finally, we have the Spaniard who won the first tournament of the 2020 season, Pablo Larrazábal. Now, in a way, when I look at Pablo in the context of this week’s tournament, he reminds me a lot of Martin Kaymer. Of course, he doesn’t have the same amount of wins or as good a record of high-placed finishes as the German – but no one does – yet, regardless, in the 11 appearances he’s made under the watchful eye of that extraordinary clubhouse, Pablo has only missed the cut 3 times; been a runner-up once (2017); posted finishes of T-11 (2011) and T-6 (2019); and even won it back in 2014. So when you pair that apparent affinity with the surrounds of the National Course with the confidence boost of that win at the ‘Alfred Dunhill Championship’ back in December – wherein he had to play the final round, essentially, hobbled – and the fact his stats from that tournament are still good enough to see him 2nd in ‘Strokes Gained’, 3rd in ‘Strokes Gained: Approach’ and 8th in ‘GIR’, Pablo could well end up surprising people this week – just as long as he’s invested some of his prize money from before Christmas into some decent socks, of course.

Anyway, like last week, I’ll be covering the action once everything kicks off Thursday, so if you want to see if none of the above proves to be in any way factual – thus forcing me to find a new cave of Oracles – be sure to check out my Twitter for all the latest updates.