TOUR Championship: The Oracles’ Fourball

Written by Stephen Moloney (www.twitter.com/TheCheeky9)

Dustin Johnson -10Brendon Todd -3Kevin Kisner -1
Jon Rahm -8Rory McIlroy -3Abraham Ancer -1
Justin Thomas -7Patrick Reed -3Ryan Palmer -1
Webb Simpson -6Xander Schauffele -3Kevin Na -1
Collin Morikawa -5Sebastian Muñoz -3Marc Leishman -1
Daniel Berger -4Lanto Griffin -2Cameron Smith E
Harris English -4Scottie Scheffler -2Viktor Hovland E
Bryson DeChambeau -4Joaquín Niemann -2Mackenzie Hughes E
Sungjae Im -4Tyrrell Hatton -2Cameron Champ E
Hideki Matsuyama -4Tony Finau -2Billy Horschel E

Come Friday in Atlanta the above table shows how the thirty players who’ve managed to actually make it to East Lake will find themselves as they take their turn to hit their opening tee shots. Some will need to produce four days of the best golf they might ever play to be in with a chance of taking home the $15 million, whilst for others, four steady days might just be enough to find themselves making that heftiest of deposits into their bank accounts, Revolut accounts or perhaps even just under their mattresses.

Now, though I normally only allow myself to pick just one player from the top 10 in the World Rankings for ‘The Oracles’ Fourball’, given the staggered scoring system employed at the TOUR Championship and the limited field, I’ll be allowing myself one extra pick from the top 10 this week, and if you have a problem with that … don’t. With that done and out of the way, however, let’s get straight into this week’s ‘Oracles’ Fourball’ for the season finale of a season we’ll never forget.

Jon Rahm

When Jon Rahm rocked up to the parking lot at Olympia Fields around lunchtime on Sunday he was +2, three back of Hideki Matsuyama and Dustin Johnson, and projected to finish 8th or 9th in the FedEx Cup rankings, thus meaning he was looking at being six back of whoever would be in possession of that coveted #1 ranking when he landed in Atlanta this week. Well, following his – what will come to be remembered as ‘iconic’ – playoff victory over Dustin Johnson at the BMW Championship thanks to one of the most insane winning putts I’m ever likely to see in my lifetime, when Jon now steps on that first tee at East Lake this Friday, he’ll know he’s only two back of DJ and in the best position he’s ever been in during his young career to add the FedEx Cup to his ever-growing trophy room.

The moment Jon Rahm drained that unbelievable putt in the playoff against Dustin Johnson at the BMW Championship. Photo Credit: PGA Tour/Keyur Khamar

Now, of course, you have to factor in the possible “emotional hangover” following such an intense week as that which he experienced in Chicago, but given the extra day of rest he’ll be getting this week ahead of teeing off, coupled with the fact there’ll be that extra motivation of knowing he’s in with a real chance of actually walking off with the $15 million, I’m sure Jon can somehow summon another four days of brilliance. 

And when you look at the shape his game is in at the moment you wouldn’t put it past Jon to do just that and make it back-to-back wins in Atlanta. Like, he was T-13 in ‘Driving Accuracy’ in Chicago, T-2 in ‘GIR’, 6th in ‘Strokes Gained: Putting’ & T-1 in ‘Strokes Gained: Total’  – I mean, if there was ever a form to “be in” to bag yourself $15 million? You’d be hard-pressed to get better than that. So, when you pair all of that with his ability to work the ball both ways and that on the three occasions he’s made it to Atlanta he’s finished T-7, T-11 & T-12, Jon Rahm could well end up becoming but the fourth European to win the FedEx Cup come Monday.

Webb Simpson

Given he was already assured of a pretty strong starting position in Atlanta thanks to a stellar season wherein he picked up two wins and seven top 10’s, Webb Simpson, after playing four straight events, felt he’d be better served taking last week off as opposed to making the trip to Olympia Fields for the BMW Championship. And, given how much of a grind the penultimate playoff event wound up being, it’s looking as though that decision was an inspired one as, even without playing last week, the North Carolina-native finds himself heading to East Lake sitting fourth in the rankings and just four shots back of Dustin Johnson once play begins on Friday.

Webb Simpson in his ‘Sunday Yellow’ at the RBC Heritage back in June. Photo Credit: Getty Images

And, for me, given how well Webb has been playing this year, not only do I think he can overturn that four-shot deficit, but I reckon he can push all the way to Monday and get the biggest win of his career outside the U.S. Open. I mean, his stock draw will play nicely at East Lake. His tee-to-green game has been solid all season (he’s currently 17th in ‘Driving Accuracy’, 6th in ‘GIR %’, 12th in ‘Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green’ & 6th in ‘Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green). He’s clocked up a lot of strong finishes at East Lake (the best of which being a T-5, T-4 & solo 4th). And then add to that the fact he’s been one of the best putters on tour this season (1st in ‘Birdie Average’, 1st in ‘Scoring Average’, 12th in ‘Strokes Gained: Putting’, 3rd in ‘Strokes Gained: Total’ & 1st in a whole plethora of other scoring categories), then with his patience and doggedness I think if he can get off to a good start on Friday, Webb Simpson could well find himself adding another $15 million to the $40+ million he’s already earned in his career-to-date come Monday evening.

Harris English

Save for running into Dustin Johnson having one of the best all-round performances of his career, Harris English could well have gone and actually snuck the Northern Trust a few weeks ago. However, after seeing how well he handled being in that final group with DJ on his Sunday processional to the title in Boston, when he, himself, had his own pressure of trying to lock up a just-as-lucrative 2nd place-finish, I think Harris will have no fear about heading to East Lake and trying to pull off the life-changing win that would be claiming the FedEx Cup.

Harris English during this year’s Northern Trust at TPC Boston. Photo Credit: PGA Tour/Keyur Khamar

Now, we have to bear in mind that Harris has only made just the one trip to Atlanta in his career and that 2015 visit didn’t exactly go to plan as he finished T-22 with a total of +5 after shooting 71-76-71-67 over the four days. However, given Harris is a better player now, I think if he can drive the ball as well as he did at TPC Boston (he’s currently 79th in ‘Driving Accuracy’ with 61.81%) and continue to pepper greens with his irons as he’s done all season (he’s 10th in ‘GIR %’), then with a hot putter he could well overturn the six-shot deficit he’ll enter the week with and spring a surprise. 

Because something he said to Amanda Balionis during the weather delay at the Northern Trust stuck with me. When asked about the comeback he’s made over the last few years, Harris said – and I’m paraphrasing here – that whenever he and his team rock up to an event now, he’s ready to go out on the course and compete. And at the TOUR Championship, that’s a vital attitude to have. See, given you’re guaranteed a hefty payday for even finishing dead last at East Lake, it would be very easy to just be “happy to be there” and phone-in the four days. But having gone through that difficult time in his career, I don’t think Harris English takes any tournament for granted – and especially not one where he has a legitimate shot at winning just shy of what he’s made in his entire career-to-date in just four short days.

Xander Schauffele

With five top 20s & six top 10s this season – including a third-place finish & two runner-up finishes – it’s been another solid year of Xander Schauffele doing ‘Xander Schauffele Things’. However, as he heads back to Atlanta this week, though he’ll be starting the week on -3 and seven back of Dustin Johnson, I have a feeling Xander might well fancy his chances of sneaking a win onto his 2019/2020 record right at the death.

Xander Schauffele at the Sentry Tournament of Champions back in January. Photo Credit: PGA Tour

Because when you look at how he’s performed in the three visits he’s made to East Lake, Xander has shown more than an affinity for Bobby Jones’ home course. In his first visit there in 2017? He won. And in the following two years? He finished T-7 & 2nd. So to find himself heading back to a course this week where he’s enjoyed so much success in the past and where, in the twelve competitive rounds he’s played there, he has shot in the 60s ten times (including a 64 & a 65), I have to think Xander can’t wait for Friday to come.

What does he have to do to make a run at the title, however? Well, realistically, as has been the case on the other occasions I’ve picked him this season, Xander, really, just needs to find something on the greens. I mean, he’s been driving it decently (93rd in ‘Driving Accuracy’ with 60.71% – which, coincidentally, is what he averaged for the week when he won at East Lake back in 2017). His iron play has been solid (11th in ‘GIR %’). And on the occasions he’s had to scramble this season, he’s been one of the best on Tour as he currently sits 4th in that category behind Daniel Berger, Brendon Todd & Harris English. On the greens, however? Well, I suppose you could say he’s been solid (like, he is 7th in ‘Scoring Average’ after all), but when it comes to the pure putting categories? The best ranking he has is a 14th in ‘Putting Inside 10 feet’. 

So like I’ve said before when it comes to Xander if he can get hot with the putter for just four days to capitalize on the number of opportunities he sets himself up with thanks to his game tee-to-green, he could well find himself winning the TOUR Championship once again – except this time it’ll be worth a cool $15 million.

Title Photo Credit: PGA Tour